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Welcome Nader Hashemi and Danny Postel, Hosted by Kelly Niknejad, Tehran Bureau.
[As a courtesy to our guests, please keep comments to the book. Please take other conversations to a previous thread. - bev]
The People Reloaded: The Green Movement and the Struggle for Iran’s Future
Kelly Niknejad, Host:
Iran held its tenth presidential election on June 12, 2009. From the outset, it seemed like it would be a watershed moment for the Islamic Republic. As Tehran Bureau political analyst Muhammad Sahimi wrote for us three months before,
The significance of the upcoming elections cannot be over-emphasized. At no time in the past 100 years has Iran faced as many problems and crises as it is grappling with now…. No other election in Iran has held such importance in the contrasting and fundamentally different views it represents in the path Iran should take domestically, as well as internationally.
“One side espouses a fundamentalist, confrontational approach to both domestic and international problems. Internally, it wants to suppress all the dissidents, even among its own ranks, and silence any voice of moderation. Internationally, it advocates an aggressive and uncompromising approach. In contrast, the opposite camp favors an open society at home, which can move on a democratic path, albeit slowly, while advocating a rational and sober diplomatic approach to the international problems that Iran is facing.
Therefore, no election in Iran has ever been so polarized.
After a very stringent vetting process, the Guardian Council whittled down the list of contenders to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Iran’s wartime prime minister; Mohsen Rezaei, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards during that same era of the Iran-Iraq War; and Mehdi Karroubi, a close associate of Ayatollah Khomeini, who had served as speaker of the parliament and at the helm of the Association of Militant Clergy — and the powerful Mostazafin Foundation. All bona fide revolutionaries. Apparently, the establishment was overconfident in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s ability to secure a second term and in the other candidates’ inability to mount a significant challenge.
“This confidence was reinforced by a pre-election poll taken by a Washington-based organization called Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion,” the Iranian scholar Ervand Abrahamian noted in an essay republished in this book. “The poll found that of 1,001 Iranians interviewed by phone from outside Iran, 34 percent favoured Ahmadinejad; 14 percent Mousavi; 50 percent had not yet made up their minds; 80 percent wanted the constitution to be altered so that the Supreme Leader would be elected directly by the public; 70 percent wanted to give the UN greater access to the country’s nuclear facilities; and 77 percent wanted better relations with the US. Apologists for the regime who continue to cite this survey ignore these findings, as well as the significance of the name and location of the polling organization.”
Former President Mohammad Khatami had entered the fray but quickly withdrew, throwing his support behind Mousavi, whose campaign steadily gained steam. In the two weeks before the polls, it caught on fire, fueled in part by six televised debates between the candidates.
Turnout was unprecedented on June 12. Many came to the polls for the first time in their lives. It looked like a very tight race. That’s why many were incredulous when state television quickly declared Ahmadinejad the winner, with 63.29 percent of the vote no less. The Press TV anchor who announced the results made sure to add that Ahmadinejad’s landslide was more significant than Khatami’s had been when he was elected to a second term in 2001. According to the official figures, Mousavi had only 34 percent of the vote.
Since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, every incumbent had won a second term with a smaller percentage of the votes than he had the first time around — with one exception: Khatami, who won reelection with a million more votes than his 20 million of 1997, despite a smaller total turnout. Ahmadinejad on the other hand, had hardly eked out a win in his first run. The 2005 election had to proceed to a second round. Though there were accusations of fraud in that election, the populace was too apathetic to care. This time they weren’t. They had turned out in full force and demanded to know what happened.
“Do you feel the election was rigged?” Frontline asked Scott Peterson, the Middle East correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor, who was in Iran for the election.
“I’m not sure that the word ‘rigged’ is probably the best way to describe what happened in Iran, and the reason is because the word ‘rigged’ implies that there was ballot-box stuffing, that there were little things around the edges that were conducted that changed the result….
“And I think that what we’ve seen in Iran is something very, very different, something that the people who are trying to change the result really were not prepared for…. They didn’t expect that there was going to be such a large turnout, that it was going to favor Mousavi, and therefore would require not just rigging around the edges, but would require simply — from the election analysts I’ve spoken to — a pulling of the numbers out of thin air. They literally created this election result, it seems, out of nothing.”
In The People Reloaded, Nader Hashemi and Danny Postel have put together a collection of essays that help explain what happened. Though both are unabashed supporters of the Green Movement, and their anthology makes the case from that angle, it does so based on the perspectives of some of the leading scholars, analysts, and journalists who have been following Iran, many of them for decades.
Nader, Danny, Welcome to the Lake.
Kelly, Thank you for Hosting today’s Book Salon.
Thank you for inviting me. It’s nice to be here.
Good afternoon Danny, Nader, and Kelly and welcome to FDL this afternoon.
Danny and Nader, i have not had an opportunity to read your book so forgive me if this is addressed in it – Did Iran use Diebold voting machines? (/snark)
Real question: Do you think the “Green Movement” has had some impact on Egypt and Tunisia recently? Do you think the actions in these two countries are going to bounce back on Tehran?
I was under the impression that Ahmadinejad was quite unpopular. How long do the Iranian PTB think they can continue with him fronting the government and maintain their own credibility?
Thanks so much, Bev and Kelly – we look forward to this dialogue.
Thanks for the opportunity.
Yes, event in Iran affect Egypt and vice versa. The exact nature and depth of the impact is difficult to discern but popular explosions for democracy resonate regionally in very healthy ways
Looks like we already have a question.
What is the Iranian PTB?
The Iranian Powers that Be
You asked a version of my Q. I haven’t seen anything in the news about demonstrations hotting up again in Iran. Is it just not being covered, is it covered somewhere I missed, or is it not happening? If the last, why not?
Nader/Danny: Do you think the government is worried about credibility?
They haven’t happened (yet) in part due to extreme regime repression. Events in Egypt have gotten a lot of attention within Iran’s pro-democracy movement leading to two important statements of solidarity from Iran’s Green Movement leaders. See Tehran Bureau for the full texts.
Nader
Or even needs it?
Do you mean the Iranian government’s credibility?
Yes, I think that’s what the commenter was asking.
I have wondered a lot about that election, but the coverage in the media I keep up with all dropped the topic after the Green movement got suppressed. So I look forward to reading your book. In the meantime, is there a short version of how Ahmedinejad got his amazing vote?
Define open society for us please what do the Iranians want as far as freedom goes? What are their biggest concerns economy, jobs, healthcare.
Some good sources on the Egypt-Iran question:
Iran Cracks Down While Egypt Cracks Up: Tehran is claiming that the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt reflect the heady days of 1979. Not so fast says the Green Movement — it’s 2009 that’s a better parallel
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/31/iran_cracks_down_while_egypt_cracks_up
Egypt’s Political Unrest: More Lessons for Iran
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/01/egypts-political-unrest-more-lessons-for-iran.html
An Iran-style outcome for Egypt? Why there are key differences
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0202/An-Iran-style-outcome-for-Egypt-Why-there-are-key-differences
Iran’s supreme leader calls uprisings an ‘Islamic awakening’: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says the upheaval in the region is a defeat for the U.S., and a ‘liberating Islamic movement.’ But Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood rejects his statement, calling it the ‘Egyptian people’s revolution.’
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-khamenei-iran-egypt-20110205,0,3601046.story
Iran Glories In Egypt’s Unrest, Perhaps Too Soon
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/05/133520521/Iran-Glories-In-Egypts-Unrest-Perhaps-Too-Soon
Yes, the Iranian goverment suffers from a massive crisis of legitimacy, esp. after the 2009 stolen election and severe state repression. Recent democratic uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt further erode the credibility of ALL authoritarian regimes in the region for obvious reasons. In short, the regime in Iran is very worried about recent developments.
NH
Yes. By powers that be, I’m assuming that there were and are individuals in and outside of the official government channels that actually run things
eCAHNomics: Did you see Scott Peterson’s explanation in the intro posted above?
Greetings – Lately it’s been suggested (because of the events in Tunisia and Egypt) that there is potential for a Pan-Arab uprising.
Just yesterday, Ali al-Sistani gave a sermon about all governments needing to heed their citizens or beware. Given his stature, would you include the Iranians and perhaps call it a pan-Arab/Persian uprising?
Ali Sistani is bang on point. Yes, his comments apply to Iran. The real division here in not between Arab/Persian or Sunni/Shia but between authoritarian elites vs. the populations whom they oppress.
Thanks for the links. It’s pretty funny that they’re all U.S. media, which I have pretty much given up on, including PBS & NPR, owing to their being increasingly propaganda outlets for the USG. Guess I’ll have to reacquaint myself with them!
Thanks so much for being here today Danny and Nader, and thanks so much for hosting Kelly.
Can you tell me what surprised you the most when you were researching this book? Was there anything that really challenged your assumptions of what you would find?
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Kelly Canfield: can you email the text of Sistani’s sermon? I missed it. Sounds important and encouraging.
FWIW, Christian Science Monitor did some of the best reporting on the TSA/Porno scanner situation.
How much did rumors the CIA and George Bush wanted Ahmadinejad to lose hurt the opposition? The NeoCons in the Media are trying to say Bush caused the opposition in Iran and gets credit for whats happening in Egypt.
Are they right/s
I think the Iranian regime is deeply worried about its legitimacy. It often acts as if it isn’t – at times it prides itself on its indifference to and isolation by the outside world. It even uses foreign criticism and antagonism as fuel for its ideological fire. But at the same time it is clearly sensitive to criticism, especially from within – which is why the Green movement freaked – and freaks – the hardliners out so much. Mousavi and Karoubi were insiders. The Green movement challenged the regime on its own terms and therefore cut to the core of its identity. It exposed its fraudulence and ideological bankruptcy like nothing before.
Oh, somehow I missed that one sentence explanation. Must have skipped right over it. Thanks.
That’s what it seemed like at the time, but not being that familiar with Iran, I didn’t want to jump to an unwarranted conclusion. Besides, my other thought was: if they were going to make up #s, why didn’t they make ones up that weren’t so totally laughable.
Since this is an edited book comprised of previously written essays, what really suprised me was how many excellent pieces had been published on the topic and how difficult it was to pick the best ones for publication.
How are Iran’s relations with other governments would they join other Arab countries to send troops to put down popular uprisings.
I was struck by the courage of people inside Iran who took – and take – extraordinary risks to get the word out about the Green movement. One of the contributors to the book was arrested and detained during the process of assembling the book, which haunted us. The stakes are very high for those engaged in this work inside Iran, and yet people take risks.
Aloha and Mahalo, Danny, Nader, and Kelly…!
I’ve been following/blogging about Iranian, I/P, ME affairs for quite some time, with an eye specifically on the constant beat of the war drums to ‘Bomb Iran’…
This is startling to say the least…
80 percent wanted the constitution to be altered so that the Supreme Leader would be elected directly by the public; 70 percent wanted to give the UN greater access to the country’s nuclear facilities; and 77 percent wanted better relations with the US.
On the Constitutional amendment, Khamenei had to quash that at all costs…
On the IAEA inspections, ElBaradei has flatly stated that Iran has under gone the most extensive inspections in his regime’s history…
In regards to better relations with the US, it is we whom have rebuffed each and every attempt at better relations…!
If I had to read between the lines: I think one reason may have been to trump Khatami’s numbers. And another reason may perhaps be found in what Iran’s Supreme Leader said himself. To paraphrase, he said if the numbers had been closer, he could have believed the rigging charges. But with such a huge gap, there was no such possibility. Or as you say, he was implying it was ‘laughable.’
Do the Kurds in the north support a more freedom in Iran or do they want their own country?
The Iranian regime tried to use Bush’s opposition to AN to score points and to advance their ideological agenda during the election campaign but few people fell for it. This is my reading.
As for Egypt, the neocons are deeply troubled by events in Egypt so I disagree with the premise of your question.
Sorry, I spoke too soon. It was Sistani’s representative, Abdel Mahdi al-Karbalai. The full text isn’t available, but the report is here.
Iran regime does seem to be gaining regional hegemony. I have frequently seen “Iran won the Iraq war.”
So are they gaining power outside of Iran while fearful about losing it within? Or, more generally, how do the internal vs. external power & control issues interplay?
There are rumors Israel and America want to bomb Iran to stop them from getting a nuclear bomb. How credible are those rumors and more importantly how much do those rumors increase Ahmadinejad’s and the hardliners power?
I agree with Kelly. At somepoint the full truth of the electoral fraud will emerge but I recommend Ali Ansari’s latest book on the topic. He suggests that the regime panicked at the last moment fearing a surge for Mousavi in the last week of the election.
*Banging forehead on computer table.*
Just when I was reconsidering how cynical I’d become, I get new info that I’m not cynical enough.
Was the Constitutional amendment even on the ballot…?
These aren’t rumors, they are publicly discussed in the mainstream. I hope and doubt it will happen while Obama is in power. Any attack on Iran will unleash a regional war that will jeopardize US interest regionally.
The threat of a US/Israel attack increases support for AN and the regime. This is why ALL human rights and pro-democracy activists in Iran are deeply upset with US policy as it allows the regime to shift public attention aware from their failed internal policies and focus it external threats.
/s means Snark tag my question was not meant to be taken seriously after all I heard that theory from the McLaughlin Group.
But yes some NeoCons are pushing this theory.
If it makes you feel better, I think you are being very cynical about PBS and NPR.
Another version of one of my Qs. More generally than the Kurds, I’ve read that Iran is ethnically diverse, that something like only about half of the pop is Persian. What is the status of internal ethnic tensions, including U.S. role in fomenting internal unrest?
The idea that Bush caused the opposition in Iran and gets credit for what’s happening in Egypt is a bad joke! The neocons talk a big game about Iran but in point of fact the Green movement wants *nothing* to do with them – in fact if the neocons had their way, the US and/or Israel would have bombed Iran, which would destroy the Green movement — which is why the Green movement opposes military attacks on Iran unequivocally. This is an inconvenient fact for the neocons. For more on this, see Ali Gharib’s article “Do neoconservatives really care about the Iranian opposition?” (http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/16/do_neoconservatives_really_care_about_the_iranian_opposition)
How can the neocons take credit for Egypt when they’re visibly unnerved by what’s happening there, to put it mildly? Have you been watching FOX Noise? The neocons are panicking big time about Egypt, giving the lie to their rhetoric of about supporting democracy and human rights. Both Iran and Egypt illuminate bankrupt the neocons are.
Great answer :)
LOL.
Kelly and Nader do you follow Cyrus Safdari’s blog at all…?
You are right about Iran’s ethnic diversity and that only about half of the pop. is Persian. As for the US role, there have been several credible reports of US involvement in trying to undermine the Iranian regime by stirring up ethnic unrest (esp. along the Iran-Pak border). My understanding is that under Obama this policy has been scaled back.
Hard to know. You should check TehranBureau.com at some point down the line. One of our reporters has been working on a feature on Jundallah, but it’s not been published yet.
Not to my knowledge. This is the first time I’ve heard this.
I don’t. Why do yo ask? Is it any good?
Another question: did the STUXnet attack result in a further internal crackdown on Greens?
I can imagine almost any excuse, as in “looking for those who collaborated with xx.” Alternatively, I could also imagine an internal domestic news blackout of such an item as well.
Any insights/opinions about STUXnet?
That would be a refreshing change.
I don’t.
What are the biggest failures of policy? Why do their policies fail bad ideas, corruption, poor administration and implementation of policy. What if anything does the government do a good job at. You can always tell a societies priorities by which policies and programs are run well and what they don’t care about because they are run poorly.
Governments in trouble spend a bunch of time screaming about enemies internal and external in America the government outsourced that job to Fox News.
Thanks will do that. Any idea when the article might be published?
Our reporter is in Egypt, so it’s been put on the back burner. She’s of Pakistani origin so she scoured the press there too in researching this story. I hope we can get it published by the end of this month.
He’s outstanding…! He’s interviewed all the time by RT, Real News, BBC, Guardian, PBS, etc…! How about Jim Lobe…?
Not directly, but it increased the regimes paranoia about external threats which does not bode well for the Green opposition (as they are viewed as facilitators of foreign powers). In truth I didn’t follow the STUXnet story very carefully.
Iran has unquestionably gained in regional power over the last decade – directly as a result of US foreign policy. Specifically as a result of the US invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Iran has made out like a bandit in both of those cases (and actually worked with the US in the case of Afghanistan). Hamid Dabashi (a contributor to *The People Reloaded*) discusses this at some length in his new book *Iran, The Green Movement and the USA: The Fox and the Paradox* (http://www.zedbooks.co.uk/book.asp?bookdetail=4375). I also recommend Juan Cole’s article (which appears in the book) on How Israel’s Gaza Blockade and Washington’s Sanctions Policy hurt the Green movement and Helped Keep Iran’s Hardliners in Power (http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175259/tomgram%3A_juan_cole,_israel%27s_gift_to_iran%27s_hardliners/).
Seconded! I had no idea only 50% Persian that could create problems do they have guest workersin the huge numbers the other Arab oil countries do?
I’ll put a reminded in my calendar for the beginning of next month.
Snark Tag :) I don’t believe the NeoClown theories but I do think they should be debunked before the GOP rewrites history in their attempt to make Bush a great president.
Regarding guestworkers, it is not comparable to the Gulf Arab states. Iran does have lots of Afghan refugees who effectively perform the same role.
Thank you. Or easier yet, follow our Twitter feed for updates on our site: http://twitter.com/tehranbureau
Will get onto those books too. I paid a lot of attention to Iran when it was touch ‘n go whether U.S. or Israel would start something there too.
I’m a big Juan Cole fan. His blog is a daily must-read.
Not guest workers. Just the way the Brits drew the borders to purposely divide ethnic groups. You know about the Kurds. Ditto Baluchis & Pashtuns.
I totally agree with you about Juan Cole. This is why he is in our book !
Interesting point about Afghan refugees. I hadn’t thought about them for quite awhile.
Jim Lobe is very good. Especially on the neocons. I like what he’s done with his blog recently, adding other voices – especially Ali Gharib, whose analysis has been outstanding. His piece ‘Do neoconservatives really care about the Iranian opposition?’ is invaluable. I can’t recommend it highly enough.
I believe they executed someone — an “Israeli spy” — on suspicion of having passed on the virus.
Juan Cole is a Baha’i like I am…! ;-)
Speaking of which, Baha’is are seriously persecuted and even executed in Iran…! 8-(
What governments are more likely to fall to protests the Arab countries or Iran if Egypt falls? How is the Iranian government reacting to Egypt’s rebellion? I think the Arab States with their huge guest worker populations might be more vulnerable.
The Blockade incident was one of those fascinating and simultaneously revolting episodes where one could see that the US, Israel and Iran actually had common interests in the event, and each used for their political purposes.
I’ve always thought they each need each other as sort of a tripod of control. Vile.
I fully concur with that…! Ali pulls no punches whatsoever…! ;-)
So here’s a minor point in the scheme of things, but may bear on larger Qs. Why is Iran persecuting the U.S. hikers so? Why don’t they just, for example, assemble a kangaroo court, try them, convict them, sentence them to time served, deport them & get rid of the problem. Is there some reason why they want to continue this embarrassment (from an outsider’s POV), maybe something going on internally? The hikers aren’t really U.S. spies are they?
Colonialism create states that are divided so they could hopefully one day be reconquered.
Do you think the Iranian government has tried to co-opt it, Nader/Danny?
I didn’t know that about either Juan or you. I’ll take it up with you on another occasion, as I’m interested in the subject, but don’t want to get this book salon off topic.
The treatment of Bahai’s in Iran is morally indefensible. One of the great things to emerge among Iran’s Green opposition is a broad consensus that in a future democratic Iran, there must be freedom of religion. See the Green Movement Charter which we have reproducted in our book.
I heard that Juan Cole is no longer a Baha’i (not that it matters).
Danny/Nader, what do you make of the hikers’ case? Are they being used as hostages?
There has been a lot of pressure recently by people like Tom Ridge for the US to become more supportive of (and to take off the terrorist lists) MEK.
How is MEK viewed in Iran and what are your thoughts on that.
He still features prominently the 12-pointed ‘Greatest Name’ on his mast head…! ;-)
One big reason the policies fail is the lack of democratic accountability, the lack of transparency, and the disfigurations of the syatem: the Islamic Republic is a petro-capitalist mafia state drifting in an increasingly militarized direction. The clique currently running the show is massively corrupt – see Muhammad Sahimi’s article ‘An Administration Plagued by Fraud and Corruption’ (Sahimi is both a columnist for the invaluable Tehran Bureau & a contributor to The People Reloaded).
Getting back to the book, what criticism do each of you have of the Green Movement, especially with the benefit of hindsight?
I have no idea. I am wondering if publicly they are nervous but maybe they are trying to co-opt it?
the pro-American regimes are more vulnerable given that they have to contest with popular anger over US policy in the region; but all regimes that are authoritarian and repressive are vulnerable to democratic protest.
As for Iran’s reaction to recent events see this program on NPR
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/05/133520521/Iran-Glories-In-Egypts-Unrest-Perhaps-Too-Soon
Ask me on a Sun/Mon LLN…! 8-)
I’ve got to hop offline.
Thanks for being here, and adding all kinds of good stuff to my must-read list.
I’ll be back to read the rest of the thread later.
My reading is that Iran is using the hikers as a bargaining chip to get something in return from the USA. They don’t want to release them until they get the maximum from the US. So far no deal has been forthcoming, hence the delay and the ambiguity. I suspect they are trying to force a confession from the hikers to prove that they were spies and it is taking some time.
No, the hikers are not spies. It was stupid of them to go hiking near the Iran-Iraq border.
Outside its own membership, I have yet to come across any Iranian who supports or sympathizes with them.
Bye. Thank you for the questions.
The MEK (or MKO as they are sometimes known) are loathed by the vast majority of Iranians. And with good reason – it’s a Stalinist death cult with a truly demented worldview and a murderous history. I have written about them and their neocon supporters. This is yet another shining example of the utter bankruptcy and hypocrisy of the neocons. As I wrote back in 2007:
Here you have virtually everything the Right claims to oppose all rolled into one: Islamism, Marxism, terrorism, and Saddam. Naturally, then, neoconservatives would utterly deplore the MEK and everything it stands for, right? … Well, no. … the fact that several prominent American conservatives have cozied up to an Islamist-Stalinist cult that was on Saddam’s payroll and the State Department considers a terrorist organization — this raises serious questions (to put it mildly) about the Right’s bedfellows and the calculus that determines them.
Good question. My criticisms are minor given the repressive context they live in. It is easy for me to judge from my comfortable perch in Denver and thus I defer to those who are on the ground.
However, I would like to see them reach out more to the poor and the working classes. There is also a need by the senior leadership to “own” the movement and call for co-ordinated symbolic acts of protest to keep the momentum alive. i.e. beyond issuing statements and critiques of the regime, they should be asking people to protest symbolically by lighting candles on key anniversaries, etc.
With an elite ruling class that faces no real democratic challenge to improve or be voted out and no free press both are needed I feel then you get a Mafia economy as you put it but you also get social immobility.
Declining living standards would be the end stage of the society and occurs when the oil money or whatever resource has been exploited to the max and no new resource is there to exploit reaches the limits of the parasite elite ruling class it can support.
Has Iran reached that point?
There is an interesting segment about the MEK/MKO in the Frontline documentary, “Showdown with Iran.” You can watch it here: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/showdown/view/
I agree with Danny. The MKO are irrelevant and have zero support inside Iran. Ervand Abrahamian – a contributor to our book – is the leading expert on the topic. Look up his writings if you want to know more.
Not yet. There are still plenty of oil and gas and lots of deposits but the economy is run via a mafia style. This is breeding lots of resentment and adding to the general discontent.
Nader/Danny: Do you think the Green Movement is dead? Why or why not?
Here’s Cyrus responding to Steven Heyedemann right after the Tunisian Revolution…
Any thoughts…?
The MEK (or MKO as they are sometimes known) are loathed by the vast majority of Iranians. And with good reason – it’s a Stalinist death cult with a truly demented worldview and a murderous history. I have written about them and their neocon supporters.
Iran has NeoCons they are doomed! Are there Neocons worshipping of wars and following the Gospel of Wealth that justifies the Elite having money as proof of God’s favor?
I think all failing societies produce an Elite Ruling class with these ideas.
So not a good element to back in an effort to support a democratic movement – got it. ;)
Does your book examine the “next steps” that are still open or that may be opened up for more democratic progress in Iran?
Perhaps they would then criminalize candles as they did the color green?
I wish the Green movement had been more embracing of Iran’s embattled labor movement and had connected more actively with the struggles of working-class Iranians – tackling, in other words, not only the issues of democracy, human rights, and civil liberties (crucial as these are) but also the issues of poverty, economic inequality, workers rights. As you know, Kelly, I laid out some of these points, in a spirit of critical solidarity with the movement, in my New School talk, which you kindly published on Tehran Bureau.
Thank you – from most of what I have seen or read, it seems incredible that they are getting so many – and such high profile – US supporters. It all makes you want to follow the money.
How do you feel Iran’s nuclear (not even nuclear weapons, but nuclear power in general as well) goals are intertwined with domestic poltics?
If it is dead why is the Iranian regime still obsessed with it? Seeminly not a day goes by without some senior leader of the regime attacking the Greens. Why attack something so vociferously if it is dead?
The Greens are alive in large part because they have won the battle for ideas in Iran. The model most Iranians aspire to is a liberal and democratic regime (not a clerical or authoritarian one). This is why the regime has to engage in massive censorship and is afraid of the free exchange of ideas and the teaching of the social sciences at Iranian universities.
The Greens strength lies in the moral and psychological victory they have scored in the hearts and minds of the young, urban and educated sections of society (who are the majority in Iran.) At the next moment of opportunity they will re-emerge publicly. Now they are alive and repressed much like the ANC in South Africa in the 70s.
One of our commenters sounds exactly like that. Same line of argument for every story.
Here’s hoping that next moment of opportunity is just around the corner.
Anyone who believes the 2009 election was free and fair is living on a different planet. There is now massive evidence, see the recent books by Ali Ansari and Scott Peterson.
Yes, the regime has support but it’s minority support that I put at between 20-30 percent max.
Many of the essays in our book speak to this question. Buy our book for a full answer !
In my essay at the end of the book, on Edward Said and the Green Movement, I explore this topic a little.
Yes, which speaks to the difficulty in organizing ANY protest inside Iran.
{ Thank you for being here Nader and Danny, host Kelly and salon attendees. }
Interesting you say that regarding the symbolism of the color green because so many Americans associate it and the word with the natural environment and movements concerned with those things rather than a grassroots, overtly political movement. I thought it was interesting that PressTV earlier this week featured a spot on the Iraninan Electric Vehicle (IEV) when they knew Americans might be watching. I wondered who the promoters/backers of the IEV are if you can comment on this.
Thanks for coming and thanks for hosting!!
Next step seems what to do til next elections. What with the strict vetting process employed by the clerics, is there any possibility a real candidate that might be acceptable to both the people and the clerics to be found?
Iran has not yet reached that point. Oil revenues have been very high, which has helped the state mafia reconfigure its power under Ahmadinejad, in complex ways that are still not fully understood. But this model can’t last indefinitely – there are too many contradictions, both economic and political, and the ruling class of the Islamic Republic know it. Which is exactly why we’ve seen the restructuring of the system’s economic architecture under Ahmadinejad (with his vast patronage networks) and the paroxysm of political repression since June of 2009, with the jails full of dissidents, journalists, artists, and Green movement activists.
Even the few Iranians who think that Ahmadinejad won the election have told me it was obvious the election was rigged. They believe if the votes had been counted, it would have resulted in a victory for him, but even they concede it was rigged. As one former IRGC commander told me, “Even a third grader could tell it was rigged.” For the record, the IRGC guy thought Ahmadinejad would have won if they had actually counted the votes. The discussion among Iranians who discuss it is that. The premise is that the votes were never counted in the first place, but who would have won, if and only if…
I shall…! ;-)
The nuclear question has become interwined with internal politics due to 2 reasons: US obsession with the topic and the Iranian regime’s obsession with the topic. These two forces have forced the issue onto domestic politics, most Iranians do not view this as priority for them.
Do the Iranian people see Nukes as protection from American or Israeli attacks?
Forgive the crude commercialism, but for those interested, the book is available on Amazon for a mere $10.90.
I think the Q is whether anyone will bother to vote based on what happened in 2009, regardless of the candidates.
Btw, wasn’t Mousavi first ruled ineligible to run by Khamenei’s junta… But, was pressured by other members of the Guardian Council to put him on the ballot, or something to that effect…?
No chance of this happening. The Guardian Council, which is unelected, vets all candidates for ideological purity and loyalty to the regime.
Because Mousavi and Karoubi has distinguished credentials inside Iran after the 79 revolution (one was the former PM; the other speaker of parliament) they could not be banned in 2009 without the regime losing face. Given what happened after the 2009 election…the vetting process will be more restrictive and severe.
I’m going to quote Nader’s answer to a similar question:
“The nuclear question has become interwined with internal politics due to 2 reasons: US obsession with the topic and the Iranian regime’s obsession with the topic. These two forces have forced the issue onto domestic politics, most Iranians do not view this as priority for them.”
Another Q: with the regime supporting Syria, Hamas and wishing to extend it’s external influence, and realizing these are long term goals for the theocratic side of the Iranian regime, it seems that the worse that global economy is or … flounders, the less the clerics might be inclined toward a freer, more open society where trade and human rights/’equal playing field’ methods would ‘rule’.
It seems clear the clerics have opted for more traditional closedness, even in their exporting of political influence. In what looks like a desire to be the bigboy in the region they are both closing off Iranian society and limiting it’s options thru AN, rather than opening up to the rich Gulf States and so on.
Thoughts?
I don’t think so. At least I didn’t hear anything to that effect.
good question. The next election will pose a huge challenge for the regime given what happened in 2009. Remember, the regime wants a huge turnout to prove to the world that it has internal legitimacy, but who is going to vote after the recent rigged election?
Oil revenue might be high but are living standards rising declining living standards and a lack of social, economic mobility will doom any government in time.
America has tons of wealth for example but the rich get richer and the wealth is not shared I expect us to rebel sooner or later.
I think you are referring to the reform candidate in 2005, Mostafa Moin, who was banned by the Guardian Council but then reinstated after Khamenie intervened (hoping to attrack a large turnout).
A couple of the more optimistic Iran analysts have told me that it will be more competitive than we imagine because the regime won’t dare to pull off the same stunt so soon again. There has also been a quietly growing base of support for Mashaie, Ahmadinejad’s right hand man, because he’s stood up to the Supreme Leader and Shia clerics. Qalibaf remains popular with some as well.
Sorry if not clear here regarding the Question @ 117 which should have been posted to the root of the thread. It is intended to springboard off a comment by Kelly but the guests are welcome to it if so inclined and if time provided …
Not sure if I understand your question but the Gree Movement’s foreign policy calls for friendly relations with all countries in the world and criticizes AN’s belligerent policies both domestically and internationall.
See the Charter of the Green Movement, in our book.
Danny/Nader: How did you go about choosing who to feature in your book?
How true…! Ironically, Obummer is going to be as hard pressed too…!
Yes, this might happen, but all candiates will be from the conservative camp who demonstrate loyalty toward the Supreme Leader and recognize the regime’s red lines.
Why did Salehi, Ahmadinejad’s new foreign minister, openly defy the Supreme Leader today: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/02/defying-suprme-leader-salehi-backs-ahmadinejads-special-envoys.html?
We both kept a file on the best articles written on the Greens. We met on 2 occasions to compare notes and there was a lot of overlap on which authors and essays should be in the book. We also argued over some essays and authors but in general we were in broad agreement.
Yes! I understand though I haven’t read it.
I am referring to the current regime pursuing more closed ends, economically, politically and probably religiously, though not outwardly…
What I’m pointing at is the closedness of the theocracy who seem to hold the reigns of everything in Iran. What will it take for them to change their song?
Achmedinejad is a place holder, a useful tool to some until he is no longer useful
Interesting question. I don’t know specifically how the Green movement’s foreign policy on Syria or Palestine would differ from the Ahmadinejad gang’s, but on a more general level I’m going to quote something from Kelly’s introduction to this forum:
“One side espouses a fundamentalist, confrontational approach to both domestic and international problems. Internally, it wants to suppress all the dissidents, even among its own ranks, and silence any voice of moderation. Internationally, it advocates an aggressive and uncompromising approach. In contrast, the opposite camp favors an open society at home, which can move on a democratic path, albeit slowly, while advocating a rational and sober diplomatic approach to the international problems that Iran is facing.”
Kelly was quoting here from a Tehran Bureau piece that preceded the June 2009 election. The author was the brilliant Muhammad Sahimi, several of whose Tehran Bureau pieces are reprinted in The People Reloaded. I also recommend a piece by Sahimi that is *not* in the book:
“Toward a Green Foreign Policy for Iran”
It’s amazing how ahead of the curve Muhammad Sahimi has been on these issues.
Salehi is part of AN’s camp. They are trying to assert themsevles in ways that often clash with the Supreme Leader. I don’t see this as a major point that affects the regime’s stability so I suspect that Khamenei won’t respond, but if the defiance continues — on major issues — it will have consequences.
Moreover, from what I recall this issue dates back to when Mottaki was f. minister and the issue of the special envoys was strongly opposed by him as it undermined his authority.
First and foremost we plundered a website called Tehran Bureau… :-)
Long Live Muhammad Sahimi!
The chorus is growing then? We have Ahmadinejad/Mashaie and now Salehi publicly standing up to Mr. Khamenei? It seems to be unprecedented.
As we come to the end of this Book Salon,
Nader, Danny, Thank you for stopping by the Lake and spending the afternoon with us discussing your new book and the Iranian Green Revolution.
Kelly, Thank you very much for Hosting this great Book Salon.
Everyone, if you would like more information:
Nader’s website
Danny’s website
Kelly’s website
Book
Thanks all,
Have a great evening!
:)
And thank you.
- Muhammad Sahimi in “Toward a Green Foreign Policy for Iran” (Sept. 4, 2010)
That was a informative read. Thank you for being here and for the other pointers to materials for further reading! Have a wonderful day!!
Thanks to you all. I found this salon very interesting.
My guess is that it is deliberate and calculated. The AN/Mashaie cabal want power. They are Machiavellian. They know that the Supreme leader and clerics are unpopular thus publicly challenging them earns them some points with the public….but it is a high risk game.
I believe they should be debunked as well. I’ve spilled a good amount of ink debunking them and plan to spill more. Their lies are toxic and must be unmasked.
Thanks Bev and thanks to Kelly and everyone else who chimed in.
This was fun.
Best,
Nader
p.s. Buy our book !
I have heard about some rumors that Rafsanjani is looking at replacing Khamenei…! ;-)
Thank you! Have a great life!
Follow the debates on Tehran Bureau!
Thank you so much, Bev and Jane and the team at Firedoglake – this has been a great opportunity for us to engage readers on these critical issues.
Special thanks to Kelly for her steady hand negotiating the curves on this road. The publication she edits, Tehran Bureau, is a must read for anyone interested in Iran!
Mahalo Nui Loa, Danny, Nader, and Kelly for this excellent Book Salon…! *g*
Thanks to all for your interest in Iran.
Phoenix Woman is upstairs!
Awal Gul: “You Cannot Wash Blood with Blood”
Upcoming events for The People Reloaded:
Boston / MIT
Friday February 11
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=158104460904615
NYC / Columbia
Friday February 25
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=189796464367704
DC / Busboys & Poets
Sunday April 17
Hey, where/when is the Denver event? That’s where I live and would love to meet Nader. :-)
Yes, I agree the CSM has consistently been a fairly decent newspaper, particularly in comparison to . . . . . . . . . . fill in the blanks.
Thanks for the chat.
http://brillwebsite.com/writngs/iran2009election.html
I hope that anyone who is serious about this will take a careful look at my analysis at the link above. You may not agree – though I am am confident you will – but you undoubtedly will conclude that one can find the 2009 Iran election to have been fair without living on “another planet.”
Eric A. Brill